There seems to be NO clear, consistent relationship between (a) the performance standard (i.e., cut score) that a state sets to determine the percentage of students who meet Adequate Yearly Progress (AYP) and (b) the overall  achievement level in the state.  For example, in 2005 two states with grade 4 reading "cut scores" apparently similar to Idaho reported significantly different overall achievement levels in reading.  On the other hand, the rigor of performance standards of two states that were similar to Idaho in overall grade 4 reading achievement appeared to be quite different. 

Please be forewarned about spurious cause and effect claims that raising cut scores (i.e. performance standards) on state tests will result in increased student achievement. 
 

How did Idaho's overall achievement in grade 4 reading compare to reading achievement in states with similar "NAEP Score Equivalents" (i.e. in states where the rigor of state reading standards for determining AYP proficiency is similar)?

Exhibit 1 displays the overall achievement scores and the NAEP Score Equivalents for Idaho and for North Carolina and West Virginia, the two states with NAEP Score Equivalents closest to Idaho.  While the cut scores for proficiency used by each of the three states to report Adequate Yearly Progress (AYP) indicated apparent similar rigor in their grade 4 performance standards, the over all achievement level in reading for Idaho fourth graders (222) was significantly higher than their counterparts in both North Carolina (217) and West Virginia (215).  Statistical significance was retrieved from the online NAEP State Comparisons tool at. http://nces.ed.gov/nationsreportcard/nde/statecomp/
 

(1)

How did the rigor of Idaho's grade 4 reading standard for determining AYP proficiency compare to the rigor of standards in states with similar overall achievement in reading?

Exhibit 2 displays the NAEP Score Equivalents and the overall achievement scores for Idaho and for New York and Iowa, two states where the overall reading achievement was not significantly different from Idaho. While the overall reading achievement levels were similar for the three states, the NAEP Score Equivalents for Idaho (185), New York (207) and Iowa (197) indicate that the rigor of state cut scores used to define "proficiency" in reading for reporting Adequate Yearly Progress (AYP) appeared to be quite different.
 

(2)

Figure from the source document:

Exhibit 3 appears on page 12 the NCES research and development report (see citation below). The figure displays the NAEP Score Equivalents for the 32 states that had sufficient data to be included in the grade 4 reading analysis.

NCES displayed confidence intervals for the NAEP Score Equivalents in Exhibit 3.  To simplify Exhibits 1 and 2, confidence intervals were omitted.  It should be noted, however, that the 95 percent confidence interval for Idaho's  overall reading achievement in grade 4 (221.86) was 220.16 to 223.56.  The 95 percent confidence for Idaho's NAEP Score Equivalent (185) was 178.3 to 190.7.
 

(3)